Hospitalisation of dengue patients continues to increase since the 34th epidemiological week indicates a sharp rise of dengue cases across the county.
On the 34th epidemiological week (a standard method of counting weeks to allow for the comparison of data year after year), covering August 20-26, on average 2,046 dengue hospitalisation cases were reported in the country, whereas on the 38th week, covering September 17-23, the number increased to 2,879, and the number is on a steep rise during the ongoing 39th week to end on Sunday.
Epidemiologists and entomologists fear that dengue hospitalisation and the fatality cases will further increase as the virus has spread to the rural areas with rains have been forecast to continue.
They explained that aedes mosquito population will persistently multiply if rains continue for two more weeks as the weather forecast goes, prolonging the favourable temperature and humidity for mosquito breeding.
Meanwhile, the country counted a new high in hospitalisation at a total of 200,981 dengue patients since January this year, with at least eight more people died and at least 1,793 more hospitalised across the country in last 24 hours until 8:00am on Friday.
On the weekly holiday of Friday, 9,526 patients were undergoing treatment with the vector borne disease in the hospitals across the country, according to a press release of the Directorate General of Health Services.
Epidemiologist and a former director of the Institute of Epidemiology, Disease Control, and Research AM Zakir Hussain said that this year Bangladesh is experiencing the longest spell of dengue surge which will still continue.
Dengue surge will last at least two more months, feared Dr Zakir Hussain.
He said the average duration of dengue spell for Bangladesh is considered four months, but in 2022, they had a five-month spell in 2022.
Public health expert and epidemiologist Mohammad Mushtuq Husain fears that the country is yet to reach the peak of dengue hospitalisation in the current spell.
‘When a stable infection situation prevails for four consecutive weeks and continues to decline stably, epidemiologically that is called the peak,’ he explained, adding that he did not find such peak situation as yet.
Meteorologist Monowar Hossain said the available forecasting data of the Bangladesh Meteorological Department show a very likely increase in rains in the first week of October across the country to continue till second week of the month.
Entomologists said that aedes population will not decline until nature itself intervenes to do so.
They said dengue has now overtaken the rural Bangladesh where no effective mosquito control mechanisms exist, which means aedes breeding will effectively reduce only through the monsoon setting out of the country resulting in fall of temperature and humidity.
A World Bank report released in 2021 said that dengue cases increase when the temperature ranges between 25C and 35C with a peak at 32C, mentioning that the spread of dengue vectors is not possible without the right temperature.
On Friday, 31 out of 44 weather stations run by the Met Office recorded the maximum temperatures range between 32.8C and 37C, while the minimum temperatures between 23C and 28C with over 76 per cent humidity.
The WB report noted that the capacity of mosquitoes to transmit dengue fever has increased by 9.5 per cent globally since 1950 due to changing climatic conditions.
Meteorologist Monowar Hossain said weather record shows with changes occurring in the weather pattern, winters are coming later than the usual time in the country.
In terms of both dengue deaths and hospitalisations, Bangladesh this year broke all previous records.
In the past 23 years since 2000, Bangladesh recorded a total of 243,744 dengue hospitalisation and 814 deaths.
Of them, in the first dengue outbreak in 2000, Bangladesh reported hospitalisation of 5,551 patients and 93 deaths, according to the DGHS data.
Dengue hospitalisations had been reported at 28,429 and 62,382, respectively, in 2021 and 2022, when the outbreak in the country caused 105 and 281 deaths respectively.
This year, 2,00,981 patients were hospitalised with 975 died, higher than the total of 22 years, as recorded in the last eight months and 29 days.
A total of 566 dengue patients were hospitalised in January, 166 in February, 111 in March, 143 in April, 1,036 in May, 5,956 in June, 43,854 in July, and 71,976 in August, according to the DGHS press release.
At least six people died of dengue in January, three in February, two in April, two in May, 34 in June, 204 in July, and 342 in August. No deaths were recorded in March.
In last 29 days of September, a total of 382 dengue patients died with 77,173 patients admitted to the hospitals, marking September as the deadliest month ever.
